Maximum Credible Loss Scenario (MCLS)

Maximum Credible Loss Scenario (MCLS)

In process industry, fires, explosions and other accident are often devastating and catastrophic, which is a serious threat to PEAR (People, Environment, Asset and Reputation. At present, in order to prevent the occurrence of the accident, many countries have devoted lots of time to the research and development of safety management and risk assessment.

Among these, the identification of the accident scenarios exerts an important influence on the layout of the plant, the safety design, the calculation of the safety protection distance and so on. It is also a key-point in risk assessment, which directly determines the validity of the assessment results.

Maximum credible Loss Scenario (MCLS):

Maximum credible Loss Scenario (MCLS) is one of the most widely used concepts in risk assessment of chemical process industries. Central to this concept is the aspect of credibility of envisaged accident scenarios. However, thus far the term credibility is mostly treated qualitatively, based on the subjective judgment of the concerned analysts. MCLS method is comprised of four steps namely Hazard identification, Consequence Analysis and Assessment of Vulnerable Scenario.

Following conditions are considered while creating the accident scenarios –

• Wind directions
• Inventory of leakage
• Process Parameters (such as Temperatures, Pressure and Humidity)
• Source of leakages

The findings are submitted in a tabular format accompanied with respective dispersion models indicating results contour on layout